CMC has fallen from the best fantasy RB in the league to a major question mark. This article breaks down his past and how you should plan on handling CMC in drafts this Fall.
Christian McCaffrey or CMC has to be one of the most polarizing fantasy assets for redraft and dynasty over the past few seasons. Taking the fantasy world by storm as a rookie in 2017, finishing as the 10th best RB in PPR scoring leagues while simultaneously catching 80 passes that season. It felt as if the sky was the limit for CMC, as the receiving upside in PPR leagues was insane!
Over the next 2 seasons, CMC continued to improve and take on more work and his stats were video game-like. In 2018, CMC managed to rush for over 1000 yards, catch 107 passes, add another 867 yards on the ground, and score 13 total touchdowns. This was enough to put him as the #2 back in fantasy that season. He was a consensus top pick in the 2019 draft and for very good reason. In 2019, CMC went absolutely nuts. Somehow improving those 1098 yards in 2018 up to 1387, catching 9 more passes for 116, and receiving for 1005 yards as well, while scoring 19 touchdowns!! The workload was insane and essentially unheard of for a while at this point. No one was close to producing at this level and that still stands as one of the top fantasy seasons for a running back of all time. CMC established himself as arguably the best dual-threat running back in the league or running back in general.
Dynasty managers rejoiced as they had probably made deep playoff runs at the very least on the back of CMC. However, there was a lingering question behind all of this success. How long can this last? Including targets and carries, CMC was featured on 1,002 plays for the Carolina Panthers over 3 seasons. With the majority coming in the ladder 2 seasons. CMC's workload was unsustainable, and dynasty managers loved the production but wanted him to have a long career as well. In 2020, things changed, CMC got injured in only the second game of the season. A huge blow to any fantasy teams that had drafted him, and to CMC himself. He was at his peak and in those 2 games was still putting up monster numbers and carrying the Panthers franchise on his back. He was able to fight back to play the 3rd game in week 9 where he looked a bit limited but played through for one last incredible game before being shut down for the season. Was this a one-time thing, or was this a sign of things to come? No one knew. So fantasy managers held out hope that he would come back stronger and better in 2021.
In 2021, things were a bit better, but still not ideal. Again, he was injured early in the season, going down in week 3. He was able to come back again in week 9 and played through week 12 but was shut down for the season again after this. Now 2 years removed from his fantasy throne, it seems like the memory of the consistently healthy and dominant CMC is a mirage at this point. A moment in time that may never come back. We know this isn't happening on purpose and it's not like he wants to be injured. But what can we do? As fantasy managers, CMC is now a very risky investment, unfortunately. An unbelievable talent when on the field, which we saw on full display even just this past season, but only playing 10 games over the past 2 seasons and now entering his 6th season, while rehabbing for the majority of the last 2, can you trust CMC?
When it comes to fantasy drafts, you need to create your own rankings based on your personal roster construction style. Are you someone who is willing to take some risky players and go for it all, or do you play it safe and draft guys with proven track records and limited injury history? Do you fall somewhere in between? This is important to know because when evaluating CMC this comes into play a lot right now. It comes down to what are the possible outcomes of CMC's season.
Best case scenario: 17 games, no injuries, handles the majority of the work for the Panthers, and finishes as a top 3 fantasy RB. This is a realistic scenario because we know if CMC is healthy, he is still producing at an elite level.
Worst case scenario: Early season injury, battling injuries throughout the season, playing only a handful of games. This is the worst-case scenario, and a scenario no one is rooting for, but after seeing it happen twice in the past two seasons, you cannot turn a blind eye to it being a possibility again this season.
Realistic scenario: Plays between 8-14 games, deals with some minor injuries throughout the season(as most running backs do), and still finishes as a Top 12-15 RB. This is definitely a safer bet for what is most likely to happen. Injuries are impossible to predict, but RBs getting tackled 15-20+ times a game makes them much more susceptible to injury than any other position.
Now that the scenarios are mapped out, what can we do about them? You need to then craft your rankings and decide where you feel comfortable taking that risk on CMC while knowing the reward that can payoff for drafting him. Compare him to the top backs in the league and decide who would you feel safer taking. For example, let's compare him to consensus RB1 Jonathan Taylor. JT just turned 23, is heading into his 3rd season, and was the 6th best RB in 2020, while finishing #1 just last season. He has a limited injury history thus far in the NFL and is poised to be the focal point of the Colts' offense again in 2022. When comparing CMC to JT, could CMC finish over JT this season? Absolutely. However, which is a safer bet? JT with his fresher legs coming off of a healthy season, or CMC who just turned 26, heading into his 6th season(long for an RB), coming off of another injury-riddled season? JT has to be the safer bet here.
Once you do this for a few guys, you find yourself at the point where you feel comfortable saying, the risk is worth the reward in drafting CMC in 2022. For me personally, I have him as my 6th ranked RB for 2022. With younger/healthier guys ahead of him, such as Najee Harris, and Joe Mixon. Guys who are coming off a strong season, in line to have a healthy workload, and just have a bit less injury risk than CMC at this point in time. At 7 and 8, I have Cook and Swift. Swift has missed a handful of games in each season and is on a struggling Lions team that just bolstered their passing game, he is still a great target, but I'm taking the risk to get the reward of CMC over Swift. Same with Cook, give me the guy who can win me my league, rather than the extremely talented RB1 whose offense may be moving towards a more pass-heavy outlook.
CMC is a polarizing player, but it comes down to how you value risk vs reward. If you think CMC can win you your league and you're willing to take that risk at #1, #2, or #3 overall, GO FOR IT!! If you believe CMC is too risky and would pass on him until the middle of the second round, DO THAT!! Believe in your gut and brain, follow your own personal beliefs, and make that decision. If you second-guess yourself and your rankings on draft day, you may come to regret that decision more if it does not work out. Instead, you should plan ahead and know who you want to take while you're waiting for your pick, build that roster, and go for that championship this year. With CMC or without him, either way, anything is possible!
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